The Long Awaited Playoff Breakdown, Err Pre Playoff Anyway (2 of 2)
The Reigning & Defending World Champions: The Los Angeles Lakers aka The Lake Show
Why They’ll Repeat
- Well, they’re easily the best team in the league, record notwithstanding. Their frontcourt trio of Bynum, Gasol and Odom is easily the tallest out there and that’s if they’re all playing together. Ron Ron went Rodman 2.0 for all of one game, before shaving his head off and keeping the purple ink. Still, he remains a viable threat to keep your best option from scoring 20-30 a game while going off for 20 himself. He will take a TON of pressure defensively off of Kobe Bauer and this postseason, with what might be ahead of him playoffwise, it’s going to be needed. If they’re running on all cylinders, forget it. Seriously. Their three game losing streak aside, I’m not sure anyone beats them four out of seven tries, especially if the first two are in Los Angeles. If this team’s focused, as I figure they will be by late April, they’re not losing. Then again…
Why They’ll Falter
- There’s something that just looks off this year compared to a year ago. As great as this team looked without Kobe, it’s like there’s way too much deference to Kobe now that he’s back. If the playoffs ended today, they’d get a center depleted Blazers team that shouldn’t give them MANY problems, especially since they’ve gotten the ‘we can’t win in Rip City gorilla’ off their back. Second round on the other hand, that might be an issue. ESPECIALLY if the Thundercats are waiting for them. Kevin Durant is one of a small group of individuals that dare I say, is virtually unguardable with anything short of an Abrams Tank. While young, the Cats aka The Thunder have more than enough to seriously get at Los Angeles. Or maybe just enough to soften them up for what might be their swan song in the Conference Finals against either Dallas or Denver.
If this offense continues to have that ‘we’ll let Kobe do everything’ modus operandi, their quest for a second crown will end either earlier than expected in the 2nd round or in the Conference Finals. They need more than Cylinder #24 firing at a repeated clip if they want to get out of the West this year. If they’re softer than Charmin (which did them in horrendously against Boston in the 2008 NBA Finals), they don’t get out of the West. If they play the way they did in this recent three game skid, they’re done. So now, in order of whom I believe to be their biggest threats…here’s your prospective threats to the throne.
Orlando
Why They Can Exact Revenge When It Counts This Spring…
- Because this year, they're not just reliant upon a tall frontcourt to throw teams off. A year ago, this got them through the East (Cleveland was vertically and offensively challenged to combat this, Boston didn't have KG and were worn out in the first round which made them easy pickins for a very hungry Magic team) last year and was negated last year against the Lakers. Their problem was a serious lack of production at the 2 spot, which they remedied with the acquisition of Vince Carter. Before Sunday's win over Los Angeles, I'd have still told you Orlando would be L.A.'s staunchest challenger. Moreso than either Dallas or Denver and DEFINITELY moreso than LeBron and the AARP All-Stars.
Vince is capable of going nuclear at any point and overall, they're deeper than the Lakers to a degree. They're definitely deeper than the Cavs, C's and Hawks. This moreso than anything you will hear in the next month and a half is why Orlando will repeat as Eastern Conference Champions, not to mention claim their first ever NBA Championship. Of course...
Why The Magic Will Vanish Into Thin Air Without The Title...
- Everything that you saw in the Finals, repeats itself. They're too reliant on the three ball, they don't get enough easy baskets and Dwight Howard doesn't do what he's capable of doing on a consistent basis while getting no real help from his supporting cast.
Dallas
Why Thirteen Might Be The Lucky Number This Year...
- Because Dirk, for the first time in his career has an absolute supporting cast around him. From big men who will hold it down in the post to swing men who can knock down the J when defenses collapse around him...Dirk's got the best unit he's had in his career. Yes, even better than the 2006 unit that imploded like Chernobyl in the NBA Finals. I was highly skeptical about this unit coming into the year, but that changed when they took part in the Wizards Fire Sale, purging Stevenson, Butler and Haywood early last month. Not only am I set in the notion that if everything continues going right for this team, they can win the West, but they can win the whole thing regardless of whomever comes out of the East. This team can definitely shoot with Orlando and against Cleveland, well, remember how bad that Magic series got after LeBron hit that miracle three that counted for nothing in the grand scheme?
Take that and multiply it. Triple it if Z doesn't return, because even if they throw LeBron on Dirk, there's still too many weapons at Dirk's disposal and with Kidd running the show...yikes. Conversely...
The Mavs Stay Bogey For The Course If...
- All they are is a Regular Season Giant. As in Dirk still shrinks up in the clutch and Kidd, along with the bulk of this team shows its age rather than its collective ability. Last year, they got by an old Spurs team before being caved in by a very tough Denver team. They were beaten up and pounded, something that hasn't been done much during this win streak, but still. I'm leery of whether or not this team has the chops to hit back if hit first. Not in terms of going basket for basket with whomever, but in terms of getting in someone's grille if threatened. Playoff time is not for the spinally challenged. Lions slaughter, lambs get slaughtered.
Denver
Why This Summer Could Be Rich & Creamy...
- Carmelo realizes his destiny and takes it back to 2003, when he helped Boeheim get his first ever National Championship. Billups shows he can take it back to the form he had when he ran Detroit to their first title since the Bad Boys Era and everything that went right for Denver a year ago, does so again this time, all the way through the playoffs. I still find myself at a loss as to how this team hasn't gone belly up, especially given the penchant Karl's teams have had for doing so after making unexpected playoff runs as the Bucks did in 2001. Conversely...
What Results In The Nuggets Getting "Dunked"...
- They revert to their schizoid mindset, playing down below their capabilities and well, beating themselves with lackluster play and all around stupidity. Carmelo alone cannot and will not carry them through the West this year. If Billups pulls a vanishing act and the offense becomes stagnant while their defense becomes Swiss Cheese in blue jerseys, they're done for.
Atlanta
How The Hawks Fly High This Summer...
- Talk Z into coming to the Dirty Dirty. Honestly, it's as simple as that if you're the Hawks. Adding Z to the lineup puts Horford back at his natural position and Josh Smith back at his. No longer are they playing small ball, they have a big they can throw it into or let him step back and pull the center with him, while they run layup lines at will. This is the ONLY WAY I see Atlanta getting out of the second round, for the first time in the history of ever. Short of that, it's...
One And Done.
- They stay the course and then, you're praying for lightning in a bottle which short of something very unexpected happening...won't. Best case, they beat out Boston for the 3rd seed and avoid seeing Cleveland in the 2nd round which will all but end horribly for the Hawks. As for some inexplicable reason, they just can't seem to beat Cleveland in spite of having an overall better starting 5. Against Orlando, they'd have serious issues stopping Howard on the blocks and there's just not enough depth on this team outside of Crawford to keep pace with Orlando. Worst case, they can't beat out Boston for that 3rd spot and maybe the Bucks KO them in the 1st round. (Stop laughing, I'm starting to believe in B-Jeezy and the Young Bucks.)
Cleveland
How The Prince Wins His Crown...
- The following must happen in order...
1) Shaq must return healthy. M-U-S-T.
2) They must get Z back to shore up that C position. Without Z, Shaq is a liability in close games and is a nonfactor down low, making them susceptible to the Magic and Lakers who can and WILL pound them at will.
3) LeBron's supporting cast MUST SHOW UP. Last year, they vanished into thin air and left LeBron hanging in the Eastern Conference Finals. If they can perform on high octane petrol for 82 games, they can do it for the 12 wins needed to get to the Finals, then four more in the Finals itself.
4) Mike Brown can't outcoach himself. Self-explanatory really.
Notice how I didn't mention anything about LeBron there? Because aside from death and taxes, you know he's a certainty and you know he's going to show up.
How Cleveland Gets Sent Into A Panic Mode Not Seen Since The 1992 Pittsburgh Pirates...
- Shaq returns and gets absolutely owned by Dwight in the East Finals. LeBron's supporting cast gets exposed and Mike Brown can't keep the game in the 80s range, opting to play the Magic's game and losing horribly. Yes, I'm admitting right now that I see no scenario playing out that has Cleveland's season ending earlier than late May/early June. There's maybe one, but short of Atlanta getting Z or Boston coming out of their coma, that's not happening. I'm not seeing them in the Finals, because quite honestly, Orlando's just better than them in all phases of the game that matters come playoff time. Better big men (Howard/Gortat > Shaq & ???), better supporting cast (Lewis, Vince, healthy Nelson, Pietrus, Barnes > Antwan, Mo & The Unmentionables) and better coach (Stan Van Jeremy > Mike Brown). I fully believe that nothing short of a title keeps LeBron in Cleveland this Summer. His supporting cast has gotten progressively older since his last Finals appearance and if he's really willing to stake the next few years of his prime that it will improve, then maybe he's dumber than those folk who call themselves "Witnesses".
Boston (Stop laughing.)
How The C's Become Champions Again...
- They snap out of it. KG plays like he's a man possessed and well, to put it simply...
They play up to their potential instead of every level beneath it.
San Antonio
How The Spurs Get Their Title Back...
- What? You didn't think I was giving up on them, did ya? In spite of the fact that yes, they're getting long in the tooth, when healthy...they're as great as any of the teams I've mentioned up to this point. I maintain quietly, this is one team Denver's praying it doesn't see in the first round. Or even at all to be perfectly honest with you. Lest we forget, Carmelo is winless against San Antonio in the playoffs. Winless as in he has not won a series against the Spurs. I still think this remains a "sleeper" in the truest sense of the word and the more and more folk forget about them, the more and more this theory holds in my book. I think health is key, maybe moreso than anything else to them making a deep run into the playoffs and back to the NBA Finals for the first time in 3 seasons.
This is pretty much where I stop, for the following reasons.
A) In spite of Utah being 4 and 1/2 games out of the West's top spot, I've seen this before from them. They do great in the regular season and then, the music fades out inexplicably in the playoffs. On top of that, if they can't find a way to unseat Denver as Northwest Champs, they're looking at either OKC, Phoenix or San Antonio in the first round. Outside of Phoenix, I don't like Utah against either the Thunder or their longtime Midwest division rivals, San Antonio.
B) Oklahoma City's too young. I hate using that cliched excuse, but OKC's got way too much youth on their roster and looking at what faces them...eh. Maybe they go ignorant to the pressure cooker they're in and have fun, in which case, they might shock Utah in the first round. But if it's Denver...it will be nasty.
C) There's no other team in either conference that really warrants consideration. I am among those who think the Bobcats may be a serious problem for someone...but it depends on who that someone is. I think against Boston, they can beat the aging Celtics. Orlando has way too many weapons to be stopped but Cleveland...oh me, oh my.
I do think Charlotte can beat Cleveland 4 out of 7. I think the collective sum of their parts is greater than the whole that Cleveland puts out there and Larry Brown will figure out a way to take LeBron's cast out of the equation.
So aside from who I mentioned, that's it. So in the East, I see it coming down to Cleveland and Orlando, with Orlando making Cleveland vanish AGAIN. This time, Cavalier fans will be left wondering if LeBron's walking up the tunnel for the final time as a Cavalier. On the Left Coast, I feel very certain Los Angeles will be there. What I'm uncertain of, is who will be with them. If Dallas has truly gotten a spinal implant and not an artificial one, they're in. Easily. If not, Denver gets in and we then wonder if they're not overly bi-polar to the point where the Lakers will simply outsmart them and walk back to the Finals. So up against it, Len Cosell will tell it like it is.
Melo's my boy and has been since Syracuse, but Dallas is looking like they can and maybe will unseat Los Angeles in the late Spring. Give me Dallas/Los Angeles out West and well...it gets real interesting on both fronts. Can Shaq put his money where his mouth is, having run off at the mouth on both SVJ and Dwight in the last year or so. Maybe Shaq was on another continent or something and missed Dwight's 40 & 20 that sent LeBron home for a long Summer break last May. This year, Orlando with a healthy Jameer Nelson running plays and Vince as his backcourt mate is way too formidable for the Cavs to handle. Jamison couldn't bust a grape in a food fight and even IF Z returns as most believe, Gortat's developed into a most capable backup for Dwight. Magic in 6, second verse is the same as the first for LeBron. Dallas/Los Angeles...is a little tougher to call now. Before the trade, I'd have said L.A. in a real laugher. This time, I see it ending in no fewer than 6 although 7 is more than possible. Short of Orlando, only Dallas can really match Los Angeles in terms of overall firepower. While L.A. has Ron Ron, Dallas can counter with The Matrix and Da Butler on the wing. Gasol and Dirk are a wash, depending on which Pau shows up. Regardless, if it comes down to a 'do or die in Bed-Stuy' scenario...I can't bet against the Mamba.
So we get Magic/Lakers II and well...
History will repeat itself. The Lakers repeat in 7.
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