The Finality Of It All (NBA Preview 3/3)
A) Every talking head you see from here to Yuma will do it for me. I'm in Ohio, I'm up to my hairline with Cavaliers are title contenders talk, I think I deserve a fucking break from it don't you?
B) Because when you peel away the bullshit you're going to be hit with from now until late April, you will see exactly what I see. That this is NOT a championship caliber team. They're not a team you can put opposite of Los Angeles or San Antonio and see taking 4 out of 7 from them. Shaq's older. That supporting cast is probably as thin as it has ever been and in spite of the additions they made, last year's disappearing act of Mo Williams and Delonte's mental meltdown has me set on what I've said all along...
They're not yet ready for prime time.
C) Mike Brown is your reigning Coach of the Year. Make no mistake, he earned it for what he did last year. But last year's playoffs push spoke to the major deficiency that this team simply hasn't corrected...
They're not offensively fit to win a title. Defense wins championships, that remains true. But if you stop the other guys and you don't score yourselves, what great is that defense doing you? That's what did Cleveland in last year. It's what's going to do them in again this year. They don't have enough offense outside of LeBron, possibly Mo and Shaq on a consistent basis to bang with Boston and Orlando in the East. Hence why in the Jersey Greatness Rankings for the Eastern Conference, they're 3rd. So that said, let's get down to the meat of the matter shall we?
A Magical Summer?
- Last year, the Lakers became the first team to rebound from a loss in the Finals to win a title the following year. When Orlando let Hedo walk, I was inclined to believe that their chance of duplicating this went with them. But then something hit me and this is and might be the single biggest thing going in Orlando's favor...
Vince Carter has never played on a title contender in his career.
That sentence above is the reason why fans in Boston, need to hold all thoughts about walking to the Finals. Because in the East, in the "Boston Three Party" era, only the Magic can claim victory over the Celts in the postseason. Are they deep enough in the frontcourt to bang with Boston? No. Are they deep all the way around as Boston? Not exactly. Can they run Boston into the ground and beat them if the score gets into the 90-100 range? I'd have to say yes and I say that because Vince gives them an extra scorer who can get you 20-30 a night. Defensively, they're as sound as they can be and I don't expect that to change. If Jameer Nelson is healthy and hasn't lost a step, their starting 5 is probably the best in the Eastern Conference. 1-5, you will NOT find another team that can touch what Orlando will send out other than the Lakers at full strength and possibly the Spurs. But for all the theatrics Vince has given us, for all the talent we thought he had coming out of North Carolina (and make no mistake, he's probably the most gifted athlete to come out of UNC since Jordan), Vince's resume is a huge disappointment. He has never been past the 2nd round of the playoffs, presume that will change this year. He has never guided a team to the Promised Land and I'll be his defense attorney in stating, he hasn't had much to guide throughout his career. The Raptors were alright, but nothing overly spectacular at the end of the day. While I was excited about the Nets with him...Kidd started to not give a shit and it just fell apart. This year, everything is different. In reading Bill Simmons' preview edition, here's the following facts which could contribute to a very feasible Orlando Magic championship run along with a few others I'm going to add on myself aside from Vince himself.
Fact: Vince has never had a teammate make an All-NBA team.
Fact: He's never played with an elite guy in his prime. (I will get back to this guy in a bit that Bill speaks of.)
Fact: The best coaches he ever had were Lawrence Frank and an almost-done Lenny Wilkens.
Fact: He's teaming up with Stan Van Jeremy, the league's best center, the league's best 3-point shooting forward (Rashard Lewis), an All-Star point guard (Jameer) and 4-5 solid role playesr on a team that desperately needs his ability to create his own shot and make threes. He's also going to be protected defensively for the first time in his career.
Now, for my add-ons.
Cleveland got Shaq to counter Dwight Howard in Orlando, as Cleveland in their typical "Ohio Logic, which is to say half-assed and assed backwards" train of thought forgot about Boston in this mix. However, going on the notion that this plays out as expected, Dwight's going to kill Shaq in the East Semis. Yes, I'm calling that right now. Dwight's going to make what Olajuwon did to The Admiral in 1995 seem like a baby getting spanked by comparison. Remember what Freddy did to Tina in the very first Nightmare? What Dwight does to Shaq will remind you of how Glenn got sucked into his bed and came out a bloody mess. Dwight will cease the mantle of being Superman once and for all, forcing Shaq to acknowledge that the end is NOW. Not near. Vince, for the first time in his career, is going into the season without any real pressure to speak of. All he has to do, is show what he can do, help Orlando and boom. It's very possible Orlando might just beat Boston, but I'm not entirely sure they'll have enough to beat L.A. or San Antonio. That only happens if Vince sheds the Half Man, Half Amazing label and becomes All Man, All Amazing.
Green And Title Hungry?
- Last year, KG went down and Boston was perceived to be finished. Cleveland was handed the Eastern Conference by default and the playoffs were going to be Boston's death knell. Someone forgot to mention that to Rondo and the rest of the Celts, who went on to win 60 games and stave off a very tough test from the Bulls before succumbing to Orlando's Magic act in the Eastern Semis. Now mind you, they weren't just beat in the Eastern Semis, they were blown out in Boston by the Magic.
Boston, recognizing that their frontcourt was bareboned after Powe and KG went down? They got deeper. They added Rasheed Wallace and with the emergence of Big Baby, this might just be the toughest frontcourt in the Association. Their second unit can probably beat the lower dregs of the league. Assuming KG's healthy, Rasheed plays like he hasn't completely lost it as he did last year in Detroit and Glen's late season emergence was the start of future attractions...Boston may just win 68-70 games. Chemistry is what will limit them from hitting that mark or POSSIBLY touching Chicago's 72 win total. Oh and I'm making this disclaimer be known right now...
If they hit 70 or beyond, they're winning it all. Seriously. Nobody in the East will be able to stand up to them, they'll get by Orlando and have revenge on their minds in the process. Orlando will NOT stand a chance of beating a healthy Boston team at full strength fueled on 70-73 wins. As for the West, well, they'll probably have their only true test come in the Finals against either Los Angeles or San Antonio. Going under the presumption that Artest is to Los Angeles what Rodman was for Chicago, Kobe's going to have an enforcer and a Pippenesque scorer alongside of him. I'm just not convinced that LA's frontcourt will have enough to bang with Boston. The addition of Wallace makes them more fiercesome and remember, Los Angeles was able to trump Orlando's size in the Finals last year. That will be neutralized this time around should they face Boston. Rondo's looking more and more like one of the best PGs in the league, not in that Elite status yet, but he's getting there. He can take a huge step that way IF he can block out the attempted trade inquiries Boston made and QB this offense back to where they belong as it were.
Guess Who's Back?
- I'm using the title of a collabo by Scarface, Jay-Z and Beanie Sigel because after a year on hiatus, the Spurs are back. With a healthy Duncan, a young stud in DeJuan Blair and the additions of RJ and McDyess...the Spurs have possibly the best team of the Duncan Era. As I stated in my most recent column, more than HALF of the NBA Titles this decade have been between the Lakers and Spurs collectively. The frontcourt for the Spurs might not pack the punch namewise that Boston does, but it's formidable. Ginobili is a huge question mark, but there's none about Mister Longoria-Parker/Parker-Longoria. Honestly, this team is so stacked, I don't think I need to say much more.
Probably because with the Spurs, not much really needs to be said.
The Lake Show
- Well, you gotta love the storylines with this team this year. On top of the ever challenging task of repeating, Lamar Odom married a Kardashian not named Kim, assistant Kurt Rambis replaced the guy who clotheslined him in the 1984 NBA FInals as AAU Minnesota head honcho and oh yeah...they signed Ron Artest to replace Trevor Ariza. Wait, is that even an accurate statement? One of the best defensive players in the league, probably quiet be kept, one of the most dangerous players in hightops (for non fighting reasons) will be playing alongside the game's best player.
Consider this folks since none of the talking heads will. Ron Artest for the bulk of his career has not, with the exception of the 2004 season really been on a title contender. Ron has collected every possible check one can collect and after a certain point in the career of any legitimate competitor, it stops being about the 'KA-CHING' and it becomes about the Bling. Championship bling. I'm going under the presumption that Ron Artest helps the Lakers maintain and with Kobe only two rings from tying Jordan, while being deadlocked with Duncan at four a piece, Kobe's going to be jacked. Make no mistake about this, in light of Jordan's HOF speech, I see only one player in the league that has that ruthless trait needed to be THAT elite. Kobe has it.
Conference Finals Predictions: San Antonio over Los Angeles and Orlando over Boston
Why???
- At the end of the day, past history is what has me sold on San Antonio. The Spurs have been Kobe's nemesis in conference in much the same way that Magic had Larry to deal with in the NBA Finals. The Spurs are one of two teams that can state they've beaten the Lakers in this decade with the lights on bright and all the money in the middle of the table. Last year, the Mavs caught them old and thinner than dental floss. Now the Spurs have gotten an infusion of youth and talent with the additions of Jefferson and Blair, with the return of Duncan to the lineup healthy and adding McDyess to an already deep frontcourt.
While San Antonio doesn't have the necessary height to compete with Los Angeles, San Antonio knows it can beat Kobe and they're not afraid of him. No other team, beyond Boston can claim that. As for the East side of things, I dunno. Boston just reeks of that 'if it looks too good to be true, it probably is' vibe. I think they can go as high as 70 plus winwise, chemistry and health permitting. I do feel they can win it all in the East without breaking a sweat, because the conference is that dilipidated. Unfortunately, I just think Orlando has it. I think even with the addition of Vince, the talking heads are going to make the same mistake they did a year ago. They're going to overlook Orlando and talk up a potential East Final of Clevleand and Boston, which will only fuel Orlando's fire. Orlando is younger than Boston and while not as stacked, the residual aftertaste from their shellacking in last year's Finals will get them back. Unfortunately...
Finals Prediction: San Antonio over Orlando
- It's not enough to get them by San Antonio. Unlike Orlando's "first" Superman, Dwight's going to make 2 trips to the Finals with Orlando. Dwight, will probably sign a long term deal with the Magic in the offseason and get at LEAST one other guy (D-Wade perhaps?) to join him. It's okay to believe in Magic, they're built to last but the unfortunate part of this season is Duncan's hungry. He wants his torch back and ya know what? Healthier than he has been in quite some time with probably the best supporting cast he has ever had, I think he does it. Dwight/Duncan will be the first real battle of bigs we've had in the Finals since the days of Parish/Kareem in the 80s.
Even if Orlando kept Hedo and added Vince, I don't see them beating San Antonio in a seven game series. I just don't. In Bill's preview issue, he wrote that Duncan to his credit has never really played on a Doomsday Squad (my term for kick ass, take no prisoners because corpses don't make great prisoners squad). In my lifetime, I've only seen maybe a handful IF that. The most recent NBA team that fits, the 1996 Bulls. As in a team that from start to finish, started laying folks out and didn't stop until they got that crown. That's my definition of a Doomsday Squad and in history, throughout the annals of recorded history, I don't think I've seen very many that qualify. Had the Patriots not lost to the Giants, they would've been the most recent in the NFL. San Antonio had a first round exit that did the one thing the Association didn't want...it gave them EXTRA REST. That means Ginobili and Duncan are healthy. It means they got time to make moves and get better. I agree with the ESPN panel that they may and probably will finish second to the Lake Show in the West standings...but homecourt in the Finals will travel through the River City and San Antonio will not be denied.
Tim Duncan wins Finals MVP. Pops gets another ring, Duncan gets to tell his grandkids he played on a Doomsday Squad and adds yet another chapter to his already growing epic as the greatest PF to play the game. Damn I can't wait to get this year kicked off...
I love this game. :)
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