Turning It Forward (Part 2 of Playoff Forecast)
- The East is weak. There's only two legitimate title contenders, one darkhorse and one really overrated group posing at title contenders. Note, Lenstradamus does not acknowledge any title contender that spots a 15 win team a 19 point lead in the fourth. 15 win teams are supposed to be fodder for you as you walk towards a title, not potential stumbling blocks. I do think the East comes down to Boston and Orlando, with Boston and their depth being too much for Orlando to handle. Cleveland's not as ready as folks seem to hope they are and Wade simply can't do it by himself (even though it's going to be great watching him try). Only things we don't know in the East are this...
1) Who's going to be the top seed and have homecourt throughout? Boston? Cleveland? Orlando? Boston's clearly got the tougher road, but I think it suits them better than a cake schedule does Cleveland. Boston's got the better road record than Cleveland, better in-conference mark and I think in spite of the record...the New Garden trumps The Q in terms of frightening folks. Orlando probably took a hit when they lost Nelson for the year, but I think they're going to be a seriously tough out...so long as Detroit's not on the other side of them.
My answer to that goes like this. If Boston gets it, which they'd have to do next month in Cleveland, Boston repeats as conference champion. Cleveland has not won in Boston all year, technically two going back to last year's playoffs. I doubt very seriously they do it, hell, $30 of my money says they don't make it out of the second round. $120 says they're not going to the Finals. Even without the financical ramifications for myself personally, I'm still ardently against the Cavs making it to the Finals again. They should have kept that team that went in 2007 intact, instead of blowing it up and getting older parts. Yes, Mo has been good in stretches. But last night, he was God awful against the Clippers. THE FUCKING CLIPPERS PEOPLE!!! They're 15 and WHATEVER (49 after last night, but I still can't get enough of hearing that on air by Austin Moron)!!! Boston's more polished and they've got more firepower than Cleveland. Hell, I think Orlando will more than likely handle Cleveland should the two meet in the second round.
Should Cleveland hang on, I can see maybe one team in that 8 spot rattling them enough to possibly beat them. I'll reveal that team in a bit. However, Cleveland's too reliant upon their PG being their second option on offense and that won't fly playoff time. Not when teams will be able to fully focus on how to take Mo out of the equation. LBJ's vaunted "supporting cast" has vanished in every loss they've taken this year and I don't see that trend changing at all.
2) Right now, there's about six teams vying for one spot. The Bulls, Knicks, Pacers, Bucks, Bobcats (yes, the Bobbers) and Nets are fighting for that 8th spot. Which depending on whomever locks down that top spot, means you're getting a boot up your ass and left fucked in the middle of the street (anyone who tackles Boston, I don't see them struggling to put someone out like Atlanta last year). Or, you may just push the Cavaliers further than they hoped to go. Hell, maybe you get to be added alongside the likes of the 1994 Nuggets, 1999 Knicks and 2007 Warriors as #8 seeds who sent #1 home early (my pick for this isn't the Nets, but the Bobcats). I think the Pacers need Granger and quite honestly, I think they'll be better next season rather than this one. I can't explain how the Bucks are still functional after they dealt away Mo Williams for virtually coupons at the Dollar Store. Seriously, I can't. The Bulls went from being on the verge of returning to prominence just three to four short years ago, to now being a virtual stepping stone in a weak conference. See Knick fans, if you let Larry do his thing, he could've gotten your Knicks where the Bobbers are right now. But since ole Zeke had to run shit himself, Larry went to Charlotte where he has the Bobbers pushing for their first playoff berth EVER. The Knicks while fun to watch for a change, won't be there.
The Nets are surprising me and if they can sustain a positive push, can get that 8th spot. Devin Harris has developed into Da Man for the Nets and VC's appearing to have accepted a secondary role. Lopez has been better than we thought and the rest of the parts appear to be moving along nicely. They're a half game behind the Bulls right now and they're gonna have a rough week starting next Friday. They see the Heat, Cavs and Lakers within a seven day stretch with three of those games being at home. Unfortunately for the Nets this year, home hasn't been where their heart has been. Their week long road trip starts tonight in the Bay, then concludes at the Garden against the Knicks. Chicago's schedule is definitely much tougher, with the Hornets, Celts, Magic and Sixers on deck over the next four games. The Lakers come to town next Saturday night and it lightens up a bit down the stretch, but not by a lot. So who will take it?
The Bobbers. Their schedule coming up after a Friday tilt with the Rockets goes like this...
Road games against Minnesota, Washington, Toronto & Philly while hosting the Lakers, Knicks, Raptors, Pacers and Kings. The Bobbers have had success against the Lakers, so don't write that off as an automatic L. Besides by that point, the Lakers will most likely have homecourt throughout the West wrapped up, but wait. They'll still be trying to seize homecourt throughout, so this will be one where guns will be locked and loaded. Either way, Larry Brown has done a magnificent job of turning this franchise around after many horrid years in the beginning. They've jettisoned Jordan's second big draft mistake in as many a year (Morrison) for Radmanovic and it's paying big time dividends. Hell, just about every move that Brown's made has worked out, including getting Diaw and Bell from Phoenix earlier in the year. On top of that, how can you not want to see Charlotte make it back to the playoffs for the first time since before the Hornets flew town? Do we not want to see Larry Brown back in the playoffs since his final year in Detroit?
Aside from that, I see Miami grabbing homecourt from Atlanta and even if they do not, Miami takes that series from the Hawks. The Sixers and Pistons are pretty much fodder and we'll leave it at that. As I stated before, Miami's a legitimate darkhorse threat but I can't see them really threatening Boston in the playoffs. Not unless someone beside Wade seriously steps up in a major way, which I don't quite see happening. I don't think Orlando's got enough experience under their belts, but I like what they've got to work with next year in a major way. Cleveland's just not what everyone hopes they will be. They're like that ugly chick at the bar you think is major league hot, only because of the beer goggles clouding your sight and judgment. You get that girl home, bang her brains out only to find out she's not anything close to what you hoped. Go fig, right? Boston's taking the East, barring anything cataclysmic going down between now and the East finals. They want to retain their crown and I don't see anyone pushing hard enough to take it from them.
Now for the real fun...the Wild, Wild, West.
As it was a year ago, I think just about every team in the chase sans Dallas and Phoenix have a shot. Actually, check that. Everyone sans Dallas, Phoenix has a shot to win the West. Don't be fooled by the record or the mileage in Shaq's tank. Okay, I kid. Phoenix still can't play enough defense to factor out West. Most likely, whomever gets that spot will be eaten alive by Los Angeles, Dallas in short order. Phoenix would be really fun to watch. (I'll reveal who I think gets it in a second.)
1) Second To The Lakers? Is actually the best place one can be at this point. Avoiding the Lakers until the Conference Finals is about as good as you can get if you're the Spurs, Jazz, Rockets, Hornets, Blazers or Nuggets. Yes, all of those teams are seperated by just FOUR GAMES. Really quick blurbs on why all of these teams need it...
San Antonio- Honestly, they don't need it as much as the other five do. They are tested enough to where it doesn't matter where they are, they'll still go out and get shit done when it counts. Duncan's back, Parker's playing better, Ginobili's the key. They need him healthy if they're to make their usual 'odd numbered march' towards another title in this decade.
Utah- Clinching this HAS to give Sloan COTY honors. If it doesn't (and it most likely wouldn't), what does? Everyone's healthy and they're as deep as any other team in the Association. Having two rounds worth of homecourt would be huge, especially given their not so sexy sub .500 mark on the road. They NEED this spot the way Donovan NEEDED T.O. in Philly.
Houston- Who'd have thunk that McGrady sitting out the year would help this team like this? Artest slides into the starting lineup nicely and this is a team you do NOT want to deal with in the playoffs. Yet another team with a sub-standard road mark, that could seriously benefit from having two rounds worth of home cooking.
Portland- Rip City appears to be back and younger than ever. B-Roy and company are pushing toward their first playoff berth in about six years. For this young team, having the first two games of a series and any potential series finale at home would really be critical to their success. Hell, with the right foe, it could be the difference between staying alive and going home. Plus with their road record being the worst of these teams, I'd say they need to put a streak together and QUICKLY to get that spot.
New Orleans- Getting back to where they were a year ago will be harder, now that everyone sees them coming. Chandler being returned to sender is the best thing that happened to the Hornets, as without him, they were dead in the water. They're one of only four teams out West (six overall) that sport a better than average road record. Unfortunately for them, the teams ahead of them in the division are better and I don't see the magic they had a year ago when they made their division title winning march.
Denver- Good news, Carmelo finally got himself a legitimate point guard with a title winning resume to boot. Bad news, this team's starting to lose it in a hurry just as Utah's regaining it in spades. It's crazy to think that in a little over a month, this team went from being 2nd to 7th and possibly falling to 8th should this slide continue. They're just a half game from a first round exit, perhaps a game and change away from moving into the second round for the first time since 1994. Carmelo should find playoff life easier with Billups running the point (I have great expectations for this pairing next year with a full season plus training camp under their belts), but if they face the Lakers...it won't matter.
So here's how I see it all unfolding ultimately...
#2 Southwest Division Champion San Antonio
- They're the Pats of the NBA for a reason. They continue to do it and do it better than most, because of the organization and the focus that they all have as a unit. One unit, one goal and God help the poor saps that try to stop em'.
#3 Northwest Champion Utah
- It will be a dogfight, but I think Utah's got the best coach in the league not named Jackson, Pops or Brown (Larry that is). This time of year, coaching accounts for more than people think. Utah will probably have this thing iced by the early part of next month. Portland's too young and Denver is just way too self-destructive to recapture the lead.
#4 Houston
- The Rockets will just BARELY squeak by Portland to get homecourt for their series with the Young Blazers. Oh and trust me, they're going to need it too.
#5 Portland
- As young as the Blazers are collectively, I just don't see them slipping under Denver in that Northwest. Portland's got it going at the right time and even if Oden's not at full strength (Len thinks they should sit him for the rest of the year, they can survive without him), Portland will make for a very rough out playoff time.
#6 New Orleans
- In what has to be the toughest division in basketball, I think Paul's minor injury plus the near trade of its best and only big man did them in. I can see the Hornets giving Utah a real fight, but Utah's just way too stocked to lose this time. Dee Dub 1, C-Paul 0.
#7 Denver
- Just when it looked like Carmelo might make it out of the first round and avoid his nemesis until the second, the car just stopped running entirely. I can't quite put my finger on how quickly this has gone down, but it's really horrible timing. Denver blew a golden opportunity to put the division on lock while Utah was struggling and Portland couldn't muster enough to really push them. Now they're looking up at both and eyeing another first round out by the Spurs dead in the face.
#8 Phoenix
- I just don't trust Dallas enough to give this to them over a motivated Suns team. Shaq's not finished yet and a Shaq/Kobe showdown in the first round, as the Suns and Lakers renew their spirited rivalry is music to my ears. Hell, the NBA would bust a huge one at the thought of those two getting together. (Yes, teams and players.)
Eastern Conference Finals: Boston/Orlando
- Yes, I'm basing this off Boston figuring out a way to get that top seed and withstand the onslaught of D-Wade in the second round. I think Orlando gets by Cleveland as Stan Van Jeremy outcoaches Mike Brown and Superman overpowers Prince James. Unfortunately for Orlando, Boston's really hungry. I really didn't think they'd sustain what they ran with a year ago, but on top of that, they've bolstered their depth adding Mikki Moore to that frontcourt and Starbury to the backcourt. Boston in 6.
Western Conference Finals: Houston/San Antonio
- I do not think Bynum's going to be healthy by playoff time. Without him against a seriously focused Houston team, that has Yao balling out of his mind...it's bad for the Lakers. I don't believe they're any tougher than they were a year ago and a second round matchup with the Rockets will prove it. So much like it was in 1986 when everyone thought we'd get Celts/Lakers, the Lakers will fall down to the dismay of The Sports Guy and many Celtics fans. So we get a replay of the 1995 Western Conference Finals. If the Rockets still had Alston, I'd be a little more inclined to lean towards the Rockets. But the Spurs adding Gooden was big, bigger than most think in all honesty. He gives them much needed depth behind Duncan, Oberto and company. This will go 7 and unfortunately for the Rockets, short of Aaron Brooks just playing out of his mind, the Texas Three Step won't miss. Duncan, Ginobili and Parker will win.
*Unless Manu's not at full strength and if Duncan's dead serious about not being near 100% anytime soon. If Adelman reverts to his Portland roots and seriously pounds it down low against Duncan, the Rockets can win this.
But I'll take the Spurs in 7 if the above does NOT play out.
NBA Finals 2009: The Boston Three Party versus The Texas Three Step
- San Antonio will be looking at being the Team of the Decade with another ring. Boston will look at repeating for the first time since their dominant run through the late 50s and 60s. The matchups will be off the page individually, with The Fact against Manu. Or Double R against Mr. Parker-Longoria. But the really big one, pits the Big Ticket against The Big F'N Franchise. Doc Rivers outcoached Big Chief Triangle in last year's Finals, but I don't see that going down this time around. Not with Duncan being on the verge of having five golden rings on his hand. Not with Parker and Ginobili being veterans of this huge stage. Not with this being an odd numbered year and simply put, Boston won't be able to bully the Spurs. The Spurs do hit back, just ask Steve Nash.
San Antonio in the Finals matchup of this deacde, seven games. (Damnit, we're due!)
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