The Melo Halfway Column (NBA All-Star/Trade/2nd Half Outlook)
It’s funny that Carmelo Anthony sparks my fire to start writing my first NBA column since the Preview and I give ye my word, this probably won’t be very long. Three things to cover, Melo, The East & The West. First, Carmelo. Let’s not get it twisted, Carmelo’s a Top 5 talent. He has not missed the playoffs in his career, he has 13 game winning shots with under 10 seconds left to play in his career. He has averaged at LEAST 20 a game in every season since 2003. He was all the Nuggets have and now, Denver joins Toronto and Cleveland as franchises that have been decimated by departures of their franchise player. For Denver, you get younger (Galinari and Felton figure to start right away, but they’re all but done for as a playoff threat out West) and not much better. (In their defense, they got a lot more for Melo than either city got for LBJ & Bosh combined.) New York gets another star, but essentially turns into a clone of the Heat, only with a slightly more formidable starting lineup (cause the Knicks actually had pieces around Amare that were starting to emerge, but most of those were sent to Nuggetland.). When a trade like this gets made, you have to ask the following questions…
1) Are you any better now than you were before? In short, does this propel you from a 1st round TKO to a team that can seriously disrupt things in the playoffs?
- The answer here, is no. The Knicks with just Amare and Company were a 1st round TKO this year. Now, with Melo and Mare, there’s only one team I see them even giving a serious problem to at least this year and that’s Miami. Remember what I said about PGs? Chauncey Billups, 2004 NBA Finals MVP. The man knows how to get it done when it counts simply put. Still, much like Orlando did earlier in the year with their trades, the Knicks just got a LOT smaller. Against teams like Boston and Chicago who are incredibly tough down low and able to Windex the glass like nobody’s business, this will hurt the Knicks going forward. (Even with Boston dealing away Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson, I’m not QUITE ready to say it’s a lock. But the series gets more interesting when you consider NY can run like the wind and Boston’s aging bodies cannot. Amended as of 2/27/11)
2) Who profits?
- It’s not the Nuggets, at least not for a very, VERY long time. The Knicks, believe it or not, do not profit from this. While you’re getting a Top 5 talent and easily a Top 10 scorer, you’re giving up your team’s 2nd, 3rd & 4th leading scorers to do so. The Knicks benefit over the long haul because once this team gets a solid core around it…they’re SCARY. Consider this as we go forward…
Boston’s getting older, figure to have at least two years left in them. Miami, still a work in progress and I’ll be blunt. I’ve always believed Carmelo had more clutch in him than LeBron. Now, playoff time, we’re gonna see who’s who. Orlando, has a two year window before Dwight Howard declares his free agency. Chicago, yeah, they’re set. D-Rose, Noah, Booze…they’re all in. Miami, will eventually get it in gear. So short term/rest of this year, nobody really benefits. Knicks get older and smaller, but still have a better supporting cast around its two than Miami has around its three. Who knew?
3) Now what?
- For Denver, losing. Lots of it. Short of Mozgov turning into the first legitimate Russkie powerhouse pulling down 20 & 10, it’s a bust and most likely, George Karl is probably heading for the hills eventually. For the Knicks, while you’re not back yet, congratulations are in order. You’ve finally got a team that’s worth your cash. Now, the only hope is Dolan doesn’t screw things up by bringing back Isiah Thomas from FIU and running Donnie Walsh out of town. Melo & Mare are scary. It’s scarier if Mare stays healthy and Melo’s pilot light gets reignited by playing in The Garden. Now, you’re looking at a place that is now moreso than before, an attractive spot for future free agents. Oh, Blake’s gotta be thrilled that his favorite Russkie can be dunked upon four times a year now going forward.
Alright, time to break down the East.
Top Dogs
- Boston and it’s really not even as close as the standings lead you to believe. The Celts are what I thought the Lakers would be and that’s thoroughly motivated to get back to the Finals. The Celts have put down the pretenders in South Beach thrice this year and for all intents and purposes, will face their staunchest challenges from either Orlando or Chicago. They’ll see one of them in the second round at the very least.
After Boston, I give Chicago the next spot in the pecking order. The acquisition of Boozer has paid off well and Derrick Rose is playing like an MVP. Hell, I’ll even go as far to say that he’s my MVP. Still, this team boasts the kind of depth up front that only Boston has and out West, the Spurs and Lakers. If you doubt them, do so at your own peril. Trust me when I tell ya, Boston wants no part of this team. Just reference the 2009 First Round series and you’ll get my meaning. Miami, is 0-3 against Boston this year. They haven’t done well against the teams they’re gonna have to run through in order to win the conference and take home title #2 this June. If you put your money on them going beyond the second round, just give it to me and save yourself the trouble. Orlando is still that ‘you’re certain they aren’t quite Top Line, but they’re capable of getting there’ squad and they THRIVE on being doubted and underestimated.
(I wrote the above before the trade deadline and didn’t go back to it. Today, the gap’s a lot closer than most think because of the Perkins trade. It’s underrated what having a legitimate big man can do for your team. Mostly every major contender you can think of either has a big man or have big men who are capable of cleaning the glass down low. Those that don’t, well, you saw what happened to the Thundercats in Game 6 last year didn’t ya? Chicago proved on Thursday night that overlooking them is perilous at your own expense. They proved that Miami doesn’t have enough horses to run with them and short of Miami getting a remotely decent PG, this team will find itself being crushed by those that do.)
The Wild, Wild West
- There’s the Spurs, the Mavs and then who knows? The Thundercats are young and talented, but we already knew that. The truest X factor out there, are the Lakers. I’m sorry, losing to Orlando and Charlotte is one thing. Losing to a team you blew out by 55 points though…no. Unacceptable. If the Lakers do indeed flip that switch, they’re going to give us one more really great Spurs/Lakers Western Conference Finals showdown. Dallas, remains shady in my book and incapable of being trusted. I believe they haven’t fully shaken off the 2006 NBA Finals meltdown or the subsequent implosion that came in the 1st round thanks to Nellieball and Golden State circa 2007. The Spurs, if they remain healthy, will be a huge force for the Lake Show or whomever to overcome.
(Today, I’m definitely inclined to amend my previous statement. The Spurs, remain a legitimate threat because of their pedigree and the fact that the Alamo will be rocking late in the Spring. The Mavs are formidable, but I don’t see them having the backbone necessary to make a seriously sustained run that gets them another date with their in-state rivals or even by OKC or Los Angeles. The Lake Show are kinda simple in this regard. If what they’ve done to this point really is them just being bored and that switch gets flipped, it’s bad. If their bench starts performing up to snuff, cancel Memorial Day. They’re winning the West and foreseeably, Phil makes it 3 for 3 in terms of threepeats in the last three decades solidifying his status as the greatest coach of all time. Kobe will draw even with Jordan and even though they’ll still be even in the ring count, Kobe will solidify his spot as the second best ever behind MJ in my book. Note, he overtakes him if he gets #7 and STAYS retired. Jordan really killed himself in my book by coming back with the Wizards.)
The Thundercats and Blazers…are easily the most intriguing teams for me to watch this Spring. Portland continues to have a surplus of youth and with the emergence of LaMarcus Aldridge as Brandon Roy shockingly and unspeakably declines…this team becomes seriously scary for some team that sleeps on them. The Thundercats though from OKC, this be in my mind, your heir apparent to the Lakers & Spurs. Getting Kendrick Perkins along with Nazr Mohammed gives them the low post presence they sorely missed last Spring against the Lake Show. Nate Robinson gives them another gun off the bench alongside the likes of James Harden and company. I really like the prospects of a OKC/LA rematch or even an OKC/SA battle for the first time since the franchise was in Seattle.
I’m not as strong about a C’s/Lake Show rematch as I was at the start of the year. That, I will admit. I didn’t expect the Lake Show to just throw it in cruise control like that, especially considering how John Blaze they were at the start of the year. That, combined with the fact that the Spurs don’t appear to be finished by a longshot and OKC’s hungrier than I thought to avenge last year’s loss…that third straight title doesn’t appear certain and an appearance in the Finals is even more uncertain. I’ll get back with my Finals prediction, there’s one other thing I need to rant on that I won’t do here. (Mainly because it doesn’t pertain to any playoff teams and it’s quasi-personal of sorts.)
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